Why Retirees Are Fleeing Certain States

Almost 67% of all New Jersey moves were outbound last year, according to a survey from United Van Lines.

The relocation company polled 26,998 of its customers who moved last year, through Nov. 30.

A third of the people who left New Jersey also cited retirement as a primary reason for their decision to pack up and go.

In all, United logged 4,430 total shipments in the Garden State. Of these, 2,959 were sent out of state.

Maine and Connecticut round out the top three states people are moving away from due to retirement, the moving service found.

On the other hand, the Sun Belt is a hot destination for those entering their golden years.

More than 4 in 10 people who moved to New Mexico in 2018 said retirement was a top reason for relocating. Florida came in second, and Arizona followed in third, United Van Lines found.

There are several reasons why people approaching retirement might want to relocate. Chief among them is the need to stretch their savings and their Social Security checks and housing costs are a big chunk of their living expenses.

Source: United Van Lines National Movers Study

What Happened to Rates Last Week?

Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.00 MBS) gained +29 basis points (BPS) from last Friday’s close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move lower compared to the previous week.

Overview:  We had a holiday-shortened session (Memorial Day) that saw MBS trading in a tight range until Friday.  Almost all of our gains occurred on Friday and were the result in a flight to safety by international investors amid growing concerns of several geo-political storms as well as rising concern over trade.

Inflation Nation: The Fed’s mostly closely watched measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures was a little hotter than expected on a monthly basis, but the markets focus more on the YOY number which matched expectations and remains well below 2%.  Headline PCE YOY hit 1.5% vs est of 1.5% and Core PCE hit 1.6% vs est of 1.6%.

Personal Income:  The April Personal Income reading was stronger than expected (0.5% vs est of 0.3%) and a big improvement over March’s pace of only 0.1%.  Spending was stronger as well with a MOM gain of 0.3% vs est of 0.2%.

Manufacturing:  The May Chicago PMI was very robust with a 54.2 vs 53.7 reading.  Any reading above 50 is expansionary.

Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary May reading was revised from 102.4 to the Final May reading of 100.0, still a nice number.

Consumer Confidence:  Whoa..this is a great reading.  The May Consumer Confidence report jumped to a reading of 134.1 which beat out estimates of 129.9 and hit the highest level since 2000.

GDP: We got our first revision to the previously released 1st QTR GDP.  It was revised downward from 3.2% to 3.1%.  The market was expecting 3.0% to 3.1% range.  If anything, this reaffirms that our 1st QTR grew at a “three handle” which means that the original print was not a mistake.  Consumer Spending was revised upward from 1.2% to 1..3%

Taking it to the House:  The April Pending Home Sales report showed a MOM drop of -1.5% vs expectations for a small gain of +0.9%.  March was revised upward though from 3.8% to 3.9%.  The MidWest was the only region that saw significant gains, perhaps due to the larger impact of SALT on states on the coasts. report showed a MOM drop of -1.5% vs expectations for a small gain of +0.9%.  March was revised upward though from 3.8% to 3.9%.  The MidWest was the only region that saw significant gains, perhaps due to the larger impact of SALT on states on the coasts. We received two data-points on housing appreciation last week.  The FHFA House Price Index (every single Fannie, Freddie, FHA and VA loan for a home purchase) showed that the values of homes based upon recent loan closings through their system grew at a 0.1% pace on a Monthly basis and 5.0% on a yearly basis in March.  The March Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which only covers 20 metro cities, showed a yearly increase of 2.7% vs est of 2.5%

Trade War:  President Trump announced that he may hit Mexico with 5% in tariffs.  This is not the result of the new trade agreement that Canada, US and Mexico have all agreed to.  This is a tariff that is designed to get Mexico to stem the flow of illegals crossing their borders onto U.S. soil.   This 5% tariff will go into effect on June 10 and then duties of up to 25% will go into effect if Mexico ignores the 5% tariff volley and does not take action to “reduce or eliminate the number of illegal aliens”.

On the Chinese front, China is said to be preparing their rare-earth mineral procedure for slowing down or stopping exports to the U.S.  Also, they are looking into adding U.S. companies and individuals to a list that China will not allow business/trade with.

What to Watch Out For This Week:

The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises.

It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets.  Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.