Both current Home Owners and Renters plan to use their tax savings in the housing market.
Zillow estimates both homeowners and renters could put $13.2 billion in tax savings directly into the American housing market in 2018, using some of their tax cut to rent or buy a bigger home. Americans will likely spend almost double that amount – an additional $24.7 billion – on home renovations in 2018, and will add about $62.6 billion to their savings and investments, according to results of the most recent Zillow Housing Aspirations Report (ZHAR)
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) enacted in December is likely to result in tens of billions of dollars being reinvested into housing in some form or another – despite the fact the legislation expressly limited a number of longstanding tax benefits for homeowners.
The net effect of the TCJA was to reduce most Americans’ federal tax liability and increase their after-tax income, in large part by lowering marginal tax rates and increasing the standard deduction. Many are likely to spend at least some of these gains, however small, on housing – despite new limits on tax benefits historically aimed at homeowners, including the mortgage interest deduction and deductions for state and local property taxes.
Source: Zillow Housing Aspirations Report
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.00 MBS) lost -40 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move higher for the week.
Overview: Inflation concerns drove rates higher last week. Inflation is the number one enemy of long bond investors as it eats away at the real rate of return. We have solid economic growth and are seeing increased wages and input prices in some regional Fed manufacturing surveys which pressured MBS last week.
Retail Sales: We had a mixed bag for the April data but the real story is the upward revisions to March. April Headline Retail Sales matched market expectations of a monthly gain of 0.3%. But March was revised upward from 0.6% to 0.8%. When you strip out Autos, Retail Sales improved by 0.3% vs est of 0.5%. However, March was revised higher from 0.2% to 0.4%..so actually without that revision, April matched market expectations.
Manufacturing: The regional Empire Manufacturing Survey was much stronger than expected (20.1 vs est of 15.0). Of particular interest is that the survey responders were very concerned about import tariffs in April, but no so much in May.
Inflation Nation: Joining the recent PCE report that shows inflation over 2.0% (net of a drop in auto prices), the NY Fed’s UIG inflation metric shows inflation to be 3.1% and the Atlanta Fed’s Sticky Inflation metric shows inflation to be 2.5%
Philly Fed: The May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey jumped to a very robust reading of 34.4 vs est of 21.0 and included a new 45 year high for new orders, selling prices increased by 7 points which is the highest levels since 1981
Leading Economic Indicators: The April reading hit 0.4% which matched expectations and March was revised upward from 0.3% to 0.4%. The report showed a rise in the factory work week but contained no surprises.
The Talking Fed: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan thinks we are at full employment. He said “Our judgment at the Dallas Fed is that we are either at or already past full employment.”
April New Housing Starts were lighter than expected (1.287M vs est of 1.310M) But March was revised upward from 1.319M to 1.336M. Building Permits were higher than estimates (1.352M vs est of 1.350). The prior month was also revised upward, from 1.354M to 1.377M. Single-family permits rose 0.9 percent to an 859,000 rate.
The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises.
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.